Sunday, July 13, 2014
ReactScriptLoader
I just published a small library called ReactScriptLoader to make it easier to load external scripts with React. Feedback is appreciated! https://github.com/yariv/ReactScriptLoader
Tuesday, June 03, 2014
Announcing HDMNode: a Node.JS based HDM Bitcoin wallet
I just released an open source a library called HDMNode. It’s a Node.JS based API server and client for hosted HDM (Hierarchical-Deterministic Multisig) Bitcoin wallets. If you’re interested in using it or contributing to it, please read on!
The goal of HDMNode is to make it easier for developers to build HDM wallets. Such wallets have significant security and privacy advantages over most popular wallet types and Bitcoin users (and the ecosystem) would benefit from a greater availability of high quality HDM wallet products. I believe there’s a dearth of HDM wallets because they’re fairly complicated to build. I hope that HDMNode will reduce the effort as well as provide developers a well audited and secure codebase on which they could safely rely. It would be a shame if every developer who wanted to build such a wallet had to face the same design issues and security pitfalls.
Why did I make HDMNode and why am I releasing it now? When I started working on this project I intended to build a complete HDM wallet product. However, as time went by I realized I had bit off a bit more than I could chew in the timeframe I had allotted to the project. While I made a lot of progress on the backend and the API client there was still a good amount of work to be done to make it production ready. In addition, the code needed many more eyeballs on it before I could be confident in its security. I didn’t want to risk shipping a product that holds people’s money with glaring flaws that I failed to catch. So, I decided that the best course of action was to open source the code and give other developers an opportunity to inspect the code, to use it in their own products, and to hopefully contribute back to the project.
While I expect HDMNode to be mostly used by hosted wallet providers, if HDMNode evolves into a complete open source wallet (with UI) it could give users who want to protect their privacy the option to host their wallet on their own servers. I don’t expect this to be the primary use case but I also don’t think that users must be forced to choose between security and privacy. With HDMNode, they could have both.
If HDMNode gains traction, I hope that its JSON-RPC based API will be standardized, allowing users to mix and match clients and servers that they trust and want to use.
What’s makes HDM wallets so great, anyway? HDM wallets’ strong security comes from their reliance on P2SH multisig addresses (as defined in BIP11 and BIP16). Such wallets store coins in addresses that are guarded by multiple private keys, each of which is generated on different machine. The typical setup is 2-of-3, where the client, the server, and a backup machine each have a key, and at least 2 keys are required to sign off on every transaction. This is far more robust than non multisig wallets, where the machine that holds the key that protects the coins becomes a single point of failure from a security perspective: if that machine gets compromised, the coins are gone.
HDM wallets also offer much better privacy than no-HD multisig wallets. Such wallets rely on a fixed set or subset of keys to generate P2SH addresses. Anyone observing the blockchain could link those addresses to each other (at least after their coins are spent) and can therefore derive the user’s balance and transaction history. HDM wallets don’t have this weakness because they can generate an arbitrary number of addresses, each made from a unique set of keys, from a single randomly generated seed, as defined in BIP32. Without knowing the wallet’s seed, it’s impossible to associate those addresses with each other.
HDM wallets have a couple of additional benefits shared with their non-multisig HD counterparts. They make it easy for users to back up their wallet once by backing up the wallet’s seed and restore it fully at a later point regardless of the number of transactions the user has performed. This is possible because having the wallet’s seed allows you to scan the blockchain and find all the transactions that sent or received coins from or to addresses that can be derived from that seed. HDM wallets also allow users to set up a hierarchical tree of sub-wallets, where having the parent wallet’s keys allows you to derive the child wallet’s keys but not vice versa. This feature can be useful for organizations or groups who want to give some members limited ability to spend the organization’s coins or observe incoming transactions to other branches of the tree.
HDM wallets have real benefits, but, as you might have guessed, they’re not perfect. Besides their implementation complexity, the main downside of HDM wallets is the initial added friction when creating the wallet, at least compared to pure hosted wallets. Users have to pick a strong password and remember it (no password recovery!). If they forget their password or fail to properly back up their keys, they can lose their coins. Also, to get the full security benefits of HDM wallets users should also set up the backup key pair on a separate machine (ideally an offline one). If a user doesn’t do that, and her machine is compromised at wallet creation time, a hacker could steal her coins once they’re deposited into the wallet. Despite this weakness (which users can avoid without too much effort) HDM wallets still much secure than client side wallets that expose the keys that guard the coins every time the user transacts. Such wallets expose the keys every time the user sends money, making their vulnerability window much bigger.
HDMNode is currently designed for supporting 2-of-3 multisig wallets, with one key on the server, one key on the client, and one key in backup (ideally offline), which I expect to be the most popular option for HDM wallets. This setup combines the best security features of wallets that store private keys client side and hosted wallets that store private keys on the server. In HDMNode, the coins are safe whether the client or the server gets hacked (but not both). If the server disappears or becomes inaccessible, the user can recover her coins using the backup (offline) key. An attacker must compromise at least 2 of these different systems to steal the user’s coins. While the server can’t steal the coins, it can act as a security service for the client by enforcing 2 factor auth and by refusing to sign off on transactions that seem suspicious or that are against user-defined rules such as daily spend limits. This protects the user against attacks where the attacker gains control over the user’s device and tries to steal the user’s coins by sending spend requests to the server.
If you’re sold on HDM wallets and you want to build one, I hope you use HDMNode. I’ll be happy to take contributions from anyone who wants to make Bitcoin wallets more secure and trusted!
How to secure your bitcoins
(This was originally posted a few months ago at https://medium.com/on-banking/how-to-secure-your-bitcoins-29b86892fc64.)
In the past few months, I’ve spent a good amount of time investigating different solutions for Bitcoin storage. I’m writing this to share the knowledge I’ve gained and to help you make informed choices about securing your bitcoins. I won’t cover all of the products in this space — that would require a much longer post — just the ones that I think are relevant to the average user.
Before I go into the details I want to emphasize that great solutions to this problem don’t exist. Every solution involves different security/usability tradeoffs. The more usable ones put your coins at greater risk of theft and the more secure put your coins at greater risk of loss — it’s indeed possible to store your coins so securely that you’ll end up securing them from yourself. With this in mind, I’ll walk you through the options that I think strike the right balance for most people. The only condition for my advice is that if you follow it and you end up losing your coins you won’t blame me for it!
If you have a small amount of coins, if you need them available online for day-to-day spending, or if you want a user friendly option use Coinbase or Blockchain.info. They’ve both been around for a few years — an eternity in Bitcoin terms. They both have mobile apps, at least for Android, but iOS users are currently out of luck (sadly, Apple has removed all Bitcoin wallets from the App Store). They allow you to easily access your account from multiple machines. They provide two factor auth, an important requirement for online wallet security. Coinbase also has daily spend limits after which a second two factor auth check kicks in, which is a nice security feature.
The main difference from a security perspective between Coinbase and Blockchain.info is that Coinbase holds the private keys for your bitcoins on their servers whereas Blockchain.info encrypts them on the client with your password and only stores the encrypted keys on the server.
As a consequence, if you use Coinbase and Coinbase gets hacked or disappears tomorrow due to some calamity you will lose your coins.
This may sound alarming, but I believe the probably this would happen is low. Coinbase’s team is competent, they follow strong security practices, and they’re backed by some of the best VCs in the industry. However, the risk of loss for Coinbase does exist, so I wouldn’t recommend putting in Coinbase a significant chunk of your life savings.
(Remember: no Bitcoin wallet has the equivalent of FDIC insurance like a bank account. Once the coins are gone, they’re gone.)
Using Blockchain.info protects you from their disappearing or getting hacked. If you keep a wallet backup you can decrypt your private keys locally as described here. However, you can still lose your coins if your phone or computer gets hacked or if an attacker gets his or her hands on your encrypted wallet and you’ve chosen a weak password. This would let the attacker brute force your private keys and steal your coins.
(When using Bitcoin wallets always choose a secure password. It should be long, it should contain a combination of letters, numbers and symbols, and it should be unique. Also, never reuse passwords because it could seriously compromise their security.)
If you do use Blockchain.info you should avoid using their web based wallet. Only use their native apps or browser extensions (preferably the Chrome app), which you can download at https://blockchain.info/wallet/browser-extension. This is because Javascript cryptography in the browser is inherently non secure. In fact, you should never trust any wallet that is web based.
Open source is another important consideration. Blockchain.info has open sourced all of their client wallet code, so its security could be vetted by experts. This is a baseline requirement for any wallet application that directly handles private keys.
Coinbase has also open sourced their Android and now delisted iOS app but this is less relevant because as opposed to Blockchain.info their client apps don’t touch private keys. Nonetheless, Coinbase should be given credit for open sourcing their apps as it gives security experts the ability to at least rule out some possible attacks.
This covers the options that I consider user friendly yet still decently secure. Let’s move on to the options that would give you much greater control over the security of your coins at the cost of much greater complexity. As you’ve probably guessed, this involves putting them in cold storage.
The two main contenders in this arena are Armory and Electrum. They both let you generate your private keys on an offline machine and only transfer your public keys to an online machine, where they can receive bitcoins but but not send them. These clients are both deterministic, which implies that all their private keys could be generated from a single seed — a randomly generated 128 bit number or easily remembered passphrase— which makes them easy to back up. Being deterministic also also allows them to generate new receiving addresses from the seed’s public key. This is an important feature because in most cases you don’t want to reuse addresses when receiving bitcoins in order to protect the privacy of your wallet balance on the public blockchain.
The main difference between Armory and Electrum is that Armory downloads the full blockchain (Armory uses bitcoind as its backend) and Electrum uses a third party server to only receive information about the addresses it holds. This makes Armory slow, private, and secure and Electrum fast, less private and somewhat less secure. Electrum is less private because the remote server to which your client connects knows your IP address and which addresses your wallet requested. It’s also less secure because a malicious remote server could lie to the client about its bitcoin balance. However, this weakness doesn’t compromise your private keys, which is the primary concern for offline wallets.
Of course, both products are open source, which is a baseline security requirement for client side wallets.
MultiBit is another noteable option because, like Armory, it relies on the P2P network to query the state of the blockchain. MultiBit is also fast because it only queries the subset of the blockchain’s blocks that are relevant to the addresses in the wallet (this is called SPV mode). This makes MultiBit more user friendly than Armory at the cost of some security because an attacker that controls the internet connection could feed the client false information about the wallet’s balance, similar to a malicious Electrum server.
MultiBit is also more private than Electrum because rather than querying the addresses it cares about directly it queries them using a bloom filter that matches a superset of those addresses. However, I don’t know precisely how much privacy this would give you because presumably the remote nodes could infer which addresses the user owns within some confidence interval. Maybe someone who’s an expert in SPV mode could expand on this.
I don’t recommend MultiBit at the moment because it’s not deterministic, which makes it harder to back up. The developers announced that a future release will enable deterministic wallets, at which point MultiBit will become a strong contender for secure yet usable offline bitcoin storage.
The most important thing you have to remember before you embark on this cold storage security journey (and it is a serious journey, as you’ll soon see), is that if your private keys ever touch a machine that’s connected to the internet you should assume they’re compromised and that your coins will be stolen.
This is because, if you’re truly paranoid, you should know that computers fundamentally cannot be trusted. It’s impossible to know what really goes on within a computer. It could have viruses, rootkits, software vulnerabilities, and even compromised hardware. If that computer has access to your private keys and it can send them over the internet, whoever controls your computer can steal your bitcoins.
With this warning in mind, let’s walk through the steps you should take to set up secure cold storage. I’m going to describe the Electrum method because I’m more familiar with it but Armory should be similar.
1) Get an old computer you won’t use for anything else. Reformat it and and install Linux on it. I recommend either Debian or Ubuntu. Make sure this computer never connects to the internet.
(When you format this machine, you should ideally encrypt your partitions — including your swap parition — for extra security. Otherwise, your OS could inadvertently write your private keys unencrypted to disc while it swaps them out of memory, allowing an attacker that gets his hands on the machine to steal your private keys.)
2) Download Electrum onto your online machine and copy it to your offline machine from a USB drive.
(Note that even USB drives can carry viruses, so it’s recommended to use a new USB drive that hasn’t touched any other machines. However, those viruses are unlikely to infect Linux machines, so if you followed step 1 you should be fairly safe).
3) Verify the binary’s GPG signature before you install it (these MultiBit instructions should apply to Electrum users too). Follow the installation instructions to install Electrum on both machines.
4) On the offline machine, create a new wallet. Choose a strong password for encrypting this wallet on disk. Write the wallet’s seed on a piece of paper.
5) Copy the public key from the offline machine to the Electrum client running on your online machine. At this point, Electrum on the online machine should be able to generate public keys for receiving bitcoins but wouldn’t be able to spend them it wouldn’t have access to the private keys, which are safely store exclusively on the offline machine. (This process is described in more detail here.)
6) As a test, send a small amount of coins to the first few addresses generated by the wallet. Then create a new wallet on the online machine, enter the seed from the offline machine, and verify your wallet has been completely restored and that you can spend the funds. Send the coins back to the the online wallet from which you sent them to verify Electrum could send them successfully.
7) If everything worked as expected, repeat steps 4-5. You should repeat those steps because the moment you’ve entered your seed into the online machine you could have compromised it so you shouldn’t use it anymore to protect your offline keys.
(If you’re truly paranoid you should should use something like Diceware http://world.std.com/~reinhold/diceware.html because there’s a chance your computer’s random number generator isn’t going to generate sufficent entropy. It sounds crazy, but this kind of bug has happened before with certain Android wallets.)
8) Send your remaining coins to the new wallet you created. Store the seed on paper in a secure place, or in multiple secure places as you see fit (e.g. in safes, bank vaults, or whereever else you feel safe).
9) For even stronger security of your paper backups, you should consider generating two factor paper backups for your wallet’s seeds by encrypting them with your password as described in BIP38. This would prevent anyone that gets your paper backups from stealing your coins if they don’t also know your password. The process for doing this will be left as an exercise to the reader.
If you’ve read this far, this is a good time to stop and ask yourself: are you sure you still want to own bitcoins? ☺
As you can see, Bitcoin security is quite complicated and hard to get right, even for people that have the understanding and the patience to put their coins in offline storage. In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons that Bitcoin isn’t quite ready for the mainstream.
That said, the future for Bitcoin security looks bright. New wallets that use multisig addresses to protect bitcoins behind multiple private keys are coming, and once they’re vetted by the experts I’ll update this post or write a new post with my latest recommendations. I’ve also started working on a project that I hope will improve security for Bitcoin users but I‘m not ready to make any promises or announcements about it. ☺
Got feedback? Join the conversation or follow me on Twitter.
In the past few months, I’ve spent a good amount of time investigating different solutions for Bitcoin storage. I’m writing this to share the knowledge I’ve gained and to help you make informed choices about securing your bitcoins. I won’t cover all of the products in this space — that would require a much longer post — just the ones that I think are relevant to the average user.
Before I go into the details I want to emphasize that great solutions to this problem don’t exist. Every solution involves different security/usability tradeoffs. The more usable ones put your coins at greater risk of theft and the more secure put your coins at greater risk of loss — it’s indeed possible to store your coins so securely that you’ll end up securing them from yourself. With this in mind, I’ll walk you through the options that I think strike the right balance for most people. The only condition for my advice is that if you follow it and you end up losing your coins you won’t blame me for it!
If you have a small amount of coins, if you need them available online for day-to-day spending, or if you want a user friendly option use Coinbase or Blockchain.info. They’ve both been around for a few years — an eternity in Bitcoin terms. They both have mobile apps, at least for Android, but iOS users are currently out of luck (sadly, Apple has removed all Bitcoin wallets from the App Store). They allow you to easily access your account from multiple machines. They provide two factor auth, an important requirement for online wallet security. Coinbase also has daily spend limits after which a second two factor auth check kicks in, which is a nice security feature.
The main difference from a security perspective between Coinbase and Blockchain.info is that Coinbase holds the private keys for your bitcoins on their servers whereas Blockchain.info encrypts them on the client with your password and only stores the encrypted keys on the server.
As a consequence, if you use Coinbase and Coinbase gets hacked or disappears tomorrow due to some calamity you will lose your coins.
This may sound alarming, but I believe the probably this would happen is low. Coinbase’s team is competent, they follow strong security practices, and they’re backed by some of the best VCs in the industry. However, the risk of loss for Coinbase does exist, so I wouldn’t recommend putting in Coinbase a significant chunk of your life savings.
(Remember: no Bitcoin wallet has the equivalent of FDIC insurance like a bank account. Once the coins are gone, they’re gone.)
Using Blockchain.info protects you from their disappearing or getting hacked. If you keep a wallet backup you can decrypt your private keys locally as described here. However, you can still lose your coins if your phone or computer gets hacked or if an attacker gets his or her hands on your encrypted wallet and you’ve chosen a weak password. This would let the attacker brute force your private keys and steal your coins.
(When using Bitcoin wallets always choose a secure password. It should be long, it should contain a combination of letters, numbers and symbols, and it should be unique. Also, never reuse passwords because it could seriously compromise their security.)
If you do use Blockchain.info you should avoid using their web based wallet. Only use their native apps or browser extensions (preferably the Chrome app), which you can download at https://blockchain.info/wallet/browser-extension. This is because Javascript cryptography in the browser is inherently non secure. In fact, you should never trust any wallet that is web based.
Open source is another important consideration. Blockchain.info has open sourced all of their client wallet code, so its security could be vetted by experts. This is a baseline requirement for any wallet application that directly handles private keys.
Coinbase has also open sourced their Android and now delisted iOS app but this is less relevant because as opposed to Blockchain.info their client apps don’t touch private keys. Nonetheless, Coinbase should be given credit for open sourcing their apps as it gives security experts the ability to at least rule out some possible attacks.
This covers the options that I consider user friendly yet still decently secure. Let’s move on to the options that would give you much greater control over the security of your coins at the cost of much greater complexity. As you’ve probably guessed, this involves putting them in cold storage.
The two main contenders in this arena are Armory and Electrum. They both let you generate your private keys on an offline machine and only transfer your public keys to an online machine, where they can receive bitcoins but but not send them. These clients are both deterministic, which implies that all their private keys could be generated from a single seed — a randomly generated 128 bit number or easily remembered passphrase— which makes them easy to back up. Being deterministic also also allows them to generate new receiving addresses from the seed’s public key. This is an important feature because in most cases you don’t want to reuse addresses when receiving bitcoins in order to protect the privacy of your wallet balance on the public blockchain.
The main difference between Armory and Electrum is that Armory downloads the full blockchain (Armory uses bitcoind as its backend) and Electrum uses a third party server to only receive information about the addresses it holds. This makes Armory slow, private, and secure and Electrum fast, less private and somewhat less secure. Electrum is less private because the remote server to which your client connects knows your IP address and which addresses your wallet requested. It’s also less secure because a malicious remote server could lie to the client about its bitcoin balance. However, this weakness doesn’t compromise your private keys, which is the primary concern for offline wallets.
Of course, both products are open source, which is a baseline security requirement for client side wallets.
MultiBit is another noteable option because, like Armory, it relies on the P2P network to query the state of the blockchain. MultiBit is also fast because it only queries the subset of the blockchain’s blocks that are relevant to the addresses in the wallet (this is called SPV mode). This makes MultiBit more user friendly than Armory at the cost of some security because an attacker that controls the internet connection could feed the client false information about the wallet’s balance, similar to a malicious Electrum server.
MultiBit is also more private than Electrum because rather than querying the addresses it cares about directly it queries them using a bloom filter that matches a superset of those addresses. However, I don’t know precisely how much privacy this would give you because presumably the remote nodes could infer which addresses the user owns within some confidence interval. Maybe someone who’s an expert in SPV mode could expand on this.
I don’t recommend MultiBit at the moment because it’s not deterministic, which makes it harder to back up. The developers announced that a future release will enable deterministic wallets, at which point MultiBit will become a strong contender for secure yet usable offline bitcoin storage.
The most important thing you have to remember before you embark on this cold storage security journey (and it is a serious journey, as you’ll soon see), is that if your private keys ever touch a machine that’s connected to the internet you should assume they’re compromised and that your coins will be stolen.
This is because, if you’re truly paranoid, you should know that computers fundamentally cannot be trusted. It’s impossible to know what really goes on within a computer. It could have viruses, rootkits, software vulnerabilities, and even compromised hardware. If that computer has access to your private keys and it can send them over the internet, whoever controls your computer can steal your bitcoins.
With this warning in mind, let’s walk through the steps you should take to set up secure cold storage. I’m going to describe the Electrum method because I’m more familiar with it but Armory should be similar.
1) Get an old computer you won’t use for anything else. Reformat it and and install Linux on it. I recommend either Debian or Ubuntu. Make sure this computer never connects to the internet.
(When you format this machine, you should ideally encrypt your partitions — including your swap parition — for extra security. Otherwise, your OS could inadvertently write your private keys unencrypted to disc while it swaps them out of memory, allowing an attacker that gets his hands on the machine to steal your private keys.)
2) Download Electrum onto your online machine and copy it to your offline machine from a USB drive.
(Note that even USB drives can carry viruses, so it’s recommended to use a new USB drive that hasn’t touched any other machines. However, those viruses are unlikely to infect Linux machines, so if you followed step 1 you should be fairly safe).
3) Verify the binary’s GPG signature before you install it (these MultiBit instructions should apply to Electrum users too). Follow the installation instructions to install Electrum on both machines.
4) On the offline machine, create a new wallet. Choose a strong password for encrypting this wallet on disk. Write the wallet’s seed on a piece of paper.
5) Copy the public key from the offline machine to the Electrum client running on your online machine. At this point, Electrum on the online machine should be able to generate public keys for receiving bitcoins but wouldn’t be able to spend them it wouldn’t have access to the private keys, which are safely store exclusively on the offline machine. (This process is described in more detail here.)
6) As a test, send a small amount of coins to the first few addresses generated by the wallet. Then create a new wallet on the online machine, enter the seed from the offline machine, and verify your wallet has been completely restored and that you can spend the funds. Send the coins back to the the online wallet from which you sent them to verify Electrum could send them successfully.
7) If everything worked as expected, repeat steps 4-5. You should repeat those steps because the moment you’ve entered your seed into the online machine you could have compromised it so you shouldn’t use it anymore to protect your offline keys.
(If you’re truly paranoid you should should use something like Diceware http://world.std.com/~reinhold/diceware.html because there’s a chance your computer’s random number generator isn’t going to generate sufficent entropy. It sounds crazy, but this kind of bug has happened before with certain Android wallets.)
8) Send your remaining coins to the new wallet you created. Store the seed on paper in a secure place, or in multiple secure places as you see fit (e.g. in safes, bank vaults, or whereever else you feel safe).
9) For even stronger security of your paper backups, you should consider generating two factor paper backups for your wallet’s seeds by encrypting them with your password as described in BIP38. This would prevent anyone that gets your paper backups from stealing your coins if they don’t also know your password. The process for doing this will be left as an exercise to the reader.
If you’ve read this far, this is a good time to stop and ask yourself: are you sure you still want to own bitcoins? ☺
As you can see, Bitcoin security is quite complicated and hard to get right, even for people that have the understanding and the patience to put their coins in offline storage. In my opinion, this is one of the main reasons that Bitcoin isn’t quite ready for the mainstream.
That said, the future for Bitcoin security looks bright. New wallets that use multisig addresses to protect bitcoins behind multiple private keys are coming, and once they’re vetted by the experts I’ll update this post or write a new post with my latest recommendations. I’ve also started working on a project that I hope will improve security for Bitcoin users but I‘m not ready to make any promises or announcements about it. ☺
Got feedback? Join the conversation or follow me on Twitter.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Bitcoin's money supply and security
(This was originally posted at https://medium.com/@yarivs/bitcoins-money-supply-and-security-10cbf87ce39e.)
It’s evident that Bitcoin has been designed to reward hoarding by its early investors. It’s encoded in the protocol that the supply of new bitcoins will gradually diminish, halving every four years until the last bitcoin will be mined in 2140. In its first four years, each Bitcoin block rewarded the miner with 50 btc. Today, the reward is 25 btc; in 3-4 years, it will be 12.5 btc, and so on.
Furthermore, mining bitcoins used to be much more accessible. In the early days of the network the hash rate (the global hashing power dedicated to mining bitcoins) was much lower. Since less hashing power was competing for the discovery of new bitcoins it used to be possible to obtain a large number of new bitcoins by mining with commodity hardware. Today, however, it’s difficult to mine profitably without custom-built, bleeding edge ASICs and cheap electricity. The combination of cheap price, high block rewards, and low competition in mining has allowed the earliest bitcoin buyers and miners to accumulate large stakes of the currency.
The scheme seems to have worked as planned. Bitcoin’s price rose from ~$14 in early 2013 to more than $1,200/btc near the end of last year (it’s now hovering around $700), yielding fantastic returns to those who accumulated a large stake of bitcoins early in the game.
The sharp rise in bitcoin’s price has led many people to call Bitcoin a bubble or Ponzi scheme. I believe that the Ponzi scheme accusation is misplaced because there’s no apparent intent to enrich early investors at the expense of late adopters or to cause late adopters any losses, which is characteristic of Ponzi schemes. In addition, while Bitcoin’s price has been undeniably volatile, whether it’s bubble or not remains to be seen. If people see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value, like gold, it’s quite possible its price will increase over time. Of course, it’s also conceivable that its price will plummet if, say, someone invents an alternative crypto currency that’s better than Bitcoin in every way and users adopt it in droves.
Whether Bitcoin’s skewed wealth distribution is fair or not is worth debating. I think that there are merits to both sides of the argument. Early investors should be rewarded for taking a risk, but if Bitcoin keeps appreciating it could be problematic that so much of its wealth should be concentrated in the hands of a few people. What is clear to me, however, is that if Bitcoin hadn’t rewarded hoarding by early investors, Bitcoin would have been much more vulnerable. In fact, it may not have been a viable new cryptocurrency at all.
The reason is that the hoarding behavior indirectly gives miners a much needed incentive to secure the network in its early days. Bitcoin can only be secure when a large amount of mining power is spent protecting the network from a 51% attack (an attack where a single entity controls 51% of the mining power and is then able to essentially rewrite the history of the blockchain and thereby launch double spend attacks). For a completely decentralized system designed for moving money, Bitcoin’s security so far has been remarkably strong. It’s unclear exactly how much it would cost to launch a 51% attack against bitcoin but I’ve heard estimates from a few hundred million to over a billion dollars. Regardless of what the actual number is, the aggregate amount of mining power that’s dedicated to securing the network is very high and that gaining control over 51% of it to launch such attack would be very expensive.
Miners aren’t volunteering their computers to the network altruistically. They have a dual incentive to mine: every time they mine a new block they earn new coins as well as transaction fees from anyone whose transaction is contained in the block. Five years into Bitcoin’s creation the transaction fees that miners make are still quite small of the amount miners earn in “block rewards” through minting new coins (only 0.29% according to https://blockchain.info/stats).
Earnings from any given block are determined by the total market cap for Bitcoin at the moment in time when the block is mined and the basic forces of supply and demand are what determine the market cap. The demand for bitcoins is driven by new investors as well as by users who want to acquire bitcoins in order to send them to other people or to buy things. The supply is driven by miners who use the newly minted coins to pay for their operations as well as by investors who sell their coins.
If Bitcoin’s incentives were inverted and investors were encouraged to sell their coins rather than hoard them, the supply of bitcoins would increase and the price would drop. Miners would lose a proportional incentive to contribute to the network the computational power that’s needed to secure it.
When early investors hoard their coins they’re propping up the price, which increases Bitcoin’s market cap and attracts more mining power to protect the blockchain. This serves the function of priming the network’s mining power in its early days before enough transactions go through the network to provide large numbers of miners with sufficient transaction fees to continue mining profitably. Because the minting of new coins dilutes the ownership stake of early investors, early investors who hoard their bitcoins are arguably paying (indirectly) for bitcoin’s security ahead of Bitcoin’s readiness to become used as a currency by large numbers of people. In fact, according to https://blockchain.info/stats, the current price per transaction (measured by dividing miner revenues by number of transactions) is $34.68, most of which is paid for almost exclusively by the block reward, i.e., existing bitcoin holders.
The current high price per transaction seems unsustainably high — and it is. To ultimately succeed, bitcoin must see growing transaction volumes and a gradual inversion of the relationship between transaction fees and block rewards. Barring these trends, it’s likely that mining revenue will decline, causing miners to eventually drop out of the network. If a large portion of miners do so the network’s security will be at risk, causing investors to flee, the price to drop, block rewards to depreciate, more miners to leave, etc, in a downward spiral.
While this dystopian scenario is possible, it’s unlikely in the near term: Bitcoin is only five years old and, by design, miners will continue being rewarded with new bitcoins for over a century. Until then, Bitcoin has plenty of time to gain popularity as a transactional currency. This will require much infrastructure to be built, from exchanges to wallets to payment providers, but much of the work is already under way. It will also require greater acceptance by merchants and users.
Thinking about this makes me appreciate the cleverness of Bitcoin’s design. On the surface, it offers a novel solution to the problem of distributed consensus (aka the Byzantine General’s Problem). But beyond that, it’s also a very carefully orchestrated economic system that would have failed very easily—and quickly—if its creator(s) hadn’t so deliberately aligned the incentives of investors, miners and users, seemingly with an eye towards maximizing the network’s security throughout its stages of adoption.
Such conceptual cleverness, however, cannot guarantee lasting success in the real world, where it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can withstand market, regulatory, and competitive forces. It’s conceivable that someone will invent an altcoin that’s even better optimized to rewarding miners (for example, an altcoin with a perpetual inflation rate that’s high enough to give miners significant additional revenues but low enough to not scare away investors). If this happens, and this altcoin one day surpasses Bitcoin in mining power, will Bitcoin remain relevant? It’s hard to say, so grab some popcorn and enjoy the ride.
(Full disclosure — I own some bitcoins, which I bought in late 2013.)
It’s evident that Bitcoin has been designed to reward hoarding by its early investors. It’s encoded in the protocol that the supply of new bitcoins will gradually diminish, halving every four years until the last bitcoin will be mined in 2140. In its first four years, each Bitcoin block rewarded the miner with 50 btc. Today, the reward is 25 btc; in 3-4 years, it will be 12.5 btc, and so on.
Furthermore, mining bitcoins used to be much more accessible. In the early days of the network the hash rate (the global hashing power dedicated to mining bitcoins) was much lower. Since less hashing power was competing for the discovery of new bitcoins it used to be possible to obtain a large number of new bitcoins by mining with commodity hardware. Today, however, it’s difficult to mine profitably without custom-built, bleeding edge ASICs and cheap electricity. The combination of cheap price, high block rewards, and low competition in mining has allowed the earliest bitcoin buyers and miners to accumulate large stakes of the currency.
The scheme seems to have worked as planned. Bitcoin’s price rose from ~$14 in early 2013 to more than $1,200/btc near the end of last year (it’s now hovering around $700), yielding fantastic returns to those who accumulated a large stake of bitcoins early in the game.
The sharp rise in bitcoin’s price has led many people to call Bitcoin a bubble or Ponzi scheme. I believe that the Ponzi scheme accusation is misplaced because there’s no apparent intent to enrich early investors at the expense of late adopters or to cause late adopters any losses, which is characteristic of Ponzi schemes. In addition, while Bitcoin’s price has been undeniably volatile, whether it’s bubble or not remains to be seen. If people see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value, like gold, it’s quite possible its price will increase over time. Of course, it’s also conceivable that its price will plummet if, say, someone invents an alternative crypto currency that’s better than Bitcoin in every way and users adopt it in droves.
Whether Bitcoin’s skewed wealth distribution is fair or not is worth debating. I think that there are merits to both sides of the argument. Early investors should be rewarded for taking a risk, but if Bitcoin keeps appreciating it could be problematic that so much of its wealth should be concentrated in the hands of a few people. What is clear to me, however, is that if Bitcoin hadn’t rewarded hoarding by early investors, Bitcoin would have been much more vulnerable. In fact, it may not have been a viable new cryptocurrency at all.
The reason is that the hoarding behavior indirectly gives miners a much needed incentive to secure the network in its early days. Bitcoin can only be secure when a large amount of mining power is spent protecting the network from a 51% attack (an attack where a single entity controls 51% of the mining power and is then able to essentially rewrite the history of the blockchain and thereby launch double spend attacks). For a completely decentralized system designed for moving money, Bitcoin’s security so far has been remarkably strong. It’s unclear exactly how much it would cost to launch a 51% attack against bitcoin but I’ve heard estimates from a few hundred million to over a billion dollars. Regardless of what the actual number is, the aggregate amount of mining power that’s dedicated to securing the network is very high and that gaining control over 51% of it to launch such attack would be very expensive.
Miners aren’t volunteering their computers to the network altruistically. They have a dual incentive to mine: every time they mine a new block they earn new coins as well as transaction fees from anyone whose transaction is contained in the block. Five years into Bitcoin’s creation the transaction fees that miners make are still quite small of the amount miners earn in “block rewards” through minting new coins (only 0.29% according to https://blockchain.info/stats).
Earnings from any given block are determined by the total market cap for Bitcoin at the moment in time when the block is mined and the basic forces of supply and demand are what determine the market cap. The demand for bitcoins is driven by new investors as well as by users who want to acquire bitcoins in order to send them to other people or to buy things. The supply is driven by miners who use the newly minted coins to pay for their operations as well as by investors who sell their coins.
If Bitcoin’s incentives were inverted and investors were encouraged to sell their coins rather than hoard them, the supply of bitcoins would increase and the price would drop. Miners would lose a proportional incentive to contribute to the network the computational power that’s needed to secure it.
When early investors hoard their coins they’re propping up the price, which increases Bitcoin’s market cap and attracts more mining power to protect the blockchain. This serves the function of priming the network’s mining power in its early days before enough transactions go through the network to provide large numbers of miners with sufficient transaction fees to continue mining profitably. Because the minting of new coins dilutes the ownership stake of early investors, early investors who hoard their bitcoins are arguably paying (indirectly) for bitcoin’s security ahead of Bitcoin’s readiness to become used as a currency by large numbers of people. In fact, according to https://blockchain.info/stats, the current price per transaction (measured by dividing miner revenues by number of transactions) is $34.68, most of which is paid for almost exclusively by the block reward, i.e., existing bitcoin holders.
The current high price per transaction seems unsustainably high — and it is. To ultimately succeed, bitcoin must see growing transaction volumes and a gradual inversion of the relationship between transaction fees and block rewards. Barring these trends, it’s likely that mining revenue will decline, causing miners to eventually drop out of the network. If a large portion of miners do so the network’s security will be at risk, causing investors to flee, the price to drop, block rewards to depreciate, more miners to leave, etc, in a downward spiral.
While this dystopian scenario is possible, it’s unlikely in the near term: Bitcoin is only five years old and, by design, miners will continue being rewarded with new bitcoins for over a century. Until then, Bitcoin has plenty of time to gain popularity as a transactional currency. This will require much infrastructure to be built, from exchanges to wallets to payment providers, but much of the work is already under way. It will also require greater acceptance by merchants and users.
Thinking about this makes me appreciate the cleverness of Bitcoin’s design. On the surface, it offers a novel solution to the problem of distributed consensus (aka the Byzantine General’s Problem). But beyond that, it’s also a very carefully orchestrated economic system that would have failed very easily—and quickly—if its creator(s) hadn’t so deliberately aligned the incentives of investors, miners and users, seemingly with an eye towards maximizing the network’s security throughout its stages of adoption.
Such conceptual cleverness, however, cannot guarantee lasting success in the real world, where it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can withstand market, regulatory, and competitive forces. It’s conceivable that someone will invent an altcoin that’s even better optimized to rewarding miners (for example, an altcoin with a perpetual inflation rate that’s high enough to give miners significant additional revenues but low enough to not scare away investors). If this happens, and this altcoin one day surpasses Bitcoin in mining power, will Bitcoin remain relevant? It’s hard to say, so grab some popcorn and enjoy the ride.
(Full disclosure — I own some bitcoins, which I bought in late 2013.)
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